Bitcoin has been flexing, mustering enough strength to impress on the 4-hour orderbooks. We’re shooting for the IDR 1.64 billion level, about $98,000 in old money. So far, this looks like a big breakout after many weeks of frustratingly sideways action. Technical analysts such as Big Cheds are going so far as to call it “beautiful.” Its price is now comfortably above both its 200-period simple moving average and exponential moving average, and volumes are starting to surge. Large wallets are accumulating BTC. All signs point to go time, right?

What if all this bullishness is just a bit too good to be true. A new era in housing finance Are we witnessing real demand, or a housing market entranced by its own wishful thinking.

Think about it. Everyone's watching IDR 1.61-1.65 billion. We all are aware that daily close above IDR 1.65 billion could initiate the rally. That's precisely the problem.

Is This Breakout Too Obvious?

We’ve watched this unfold before, not just in the crypto space, but across all markets. Remember the dot-com boom? The housing bubble? The South Sea Bubble? Whole fortunes were created and wiped out on the basis of shared fantasy. It’s like a packed theater where everyone stands up to see better, but nobody can see anything. Amidst the discontent, with only a minor provocation, pandemonium can turn into a panic-fueled stampede.

This is more than just a few lines on a graph. This is about human behavior. It’s all about confirmation bias, that tendency to only see and acknowledge the data that aligns with what we already believe to be true. It’s the first killer—it’s FOMO, Fear Of Missing Out, driving double the startup investment decisions by emotion instead of logic. It’s not about outsmarting the market. It’s about the siren song of easy money distracting us from what truly causes us to take risks.

What if that seemingly-unavoidable expectation of a breakout is itself producing the breakout—even if what’s breaking out is fundamentally unsustainable. Absolutely. It's the classic self-fulfilling prophecy.

The Siren Song of Self-Fulfilling Prophecies

Now, picture the same scenario in a classroom where the teacher is convinced that the student in question is a prodigy. Without realizing it, the teacher focuses on that student more, cheers them on more, stretches them more with tougher work. The student, in turn, responds and outshines everyone’s expectations, validating the teacher’s original faith. The belief itself altered reality.

The same dynamic can occur in markets. If enough people believe Bitcoin will hit IDR 1.64 billion, their collective buying pressure can push it there, regardless of its intrinsic value. What does it mean when the buying pressure goes away?

A bull trap entices naive investors with a false move up. Then, without warning, it turns around violently, and all they are left holding are the losses. Then it’s the market equivalent of a mirage in the desert. Right when you think you see an oasis of water, it’s just a mean mirage from the glare of the sun.

Historically, these traps have been brought about by over-leveraged positions and unsustainable exuberance. They fall apart like a house of cards constructed on a dangerous stack of prayer. The article mentions large wallets accumulating BTC – are they driving the price up to then dump on retail investors caught in the FOMO frenzy? It's a question worth asking.

I’m not making a prediction that Bitcoin cannot go through IDR 1.65 billion. It very well might. And maybe it will sustain that level. I am arguing that it’s the height of folly not to come into this new reality with a strong sense of skepticism.

As the article itself acknowledges, the market is largely in a state of limbo. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. And the simple observation that the IDR 1.61-1.65 billion area has a history of sparking selling interest should make us sit up in alarm.

Protect Yourself From the Stampede

And never forget, the market has no concern for your aspirations, fears or wishful thinking. It’s a cold, often brutal economic engine powered by the forces of supply and demand. And often, the loudest signals are the ones you need to worry about the most. Don't get caught in the bull trap. Stay on your toes, stay plugged in, and above all else, stay reasonable.

The article itself admits the market is in a state of limbo. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. And the fact that the IDR 1.61-1.65 billion area has historically triggered selling interest should give us pause.

So, what can you do to protect yourself?

  • Set Stop-Loss Orders: This is your safety net. Determine your risk tolerance and set stop-loss orders to limit potential losses if the price reverses.
  • Diversify Your Portfolio: Don't put all your eggs in one basket, especially a potentially volatile basket like Bitcoin.
  • Avoid Leveraged Trading: Leverage amplifies both gains and losses. If you're wrong, you could be wiped out. Don’t gamble with what you can't afford to lose, especially during these times of uncertainty.
  • Do Your Own Research: Don't rely solely on the opinions of analysts or the hype on social media. Understand the underlying technology, the market dynamics, and the risks involved.

Remember, the market doesn't care about your hopes, dreams, or anxieties. It's a cold, calculating machine driven by supply and demand. And sometimes, the loudest signals are the ones you should be most wary of. Don't get caught in the bull trap. Stay vigilant, stay informed, and most importantly, stay rational.