So, TON hit $3. Big deal, right? Everyone's patting themselves on the back, talking about Telegram's grand crypto vision finally materializing. Whoa there, hold your horses. We've seen this movie before. Remember Bitconnect? The first article was about that army of influencers that was shilling those promises of guaranteed returns. The crypto graveyard is filled with crypto projects that promised the moon and ended up bringing back … nothing.

Telegram's Savior or Just Hype?

Look, I get it. Telegram has a massive user base. The promise of being able to include crypto payments and services onto a platform that is already used by hundreds of millions is hard to resist. And the past day's 1.5% gain, though lagging the CoinDesk 20 index of big cryptos, is nonetheless a gain. The extreme high trading volumes, which spiked to 2.97M on the May 2022 pullback, are pretty hard to miss.

Let's not confuse potential with reality. Are ordinary users actually using TON for anything other than speculation? Should we assume that this is simply another case of using the Telegram brand to pump a token? Without these aspects, it feels like this token has no true utility. We need to ask ourselves are we seeing genuine adoption, or just a herd mentality fueled by the fear of missing out?

First, full disclosure, I’m not saying that TON has any particular destiny toward failure. What I am not saying is that we should stop dreaming big—that’s the opposite of what we’re advocating for. What about TON’s underlying technology makes it so innovative? Or is its governance model simply the latest in a long line of usual blockchain fare, repackaged with some Telegram logos and a shimmery glaze?

Think about it this way: celebrity endorsements don't guarantee a good product. Just ask anybody who purchased a particular energy drink after watching their favorite influencer go to town on it. Telegram's involvement certainly gives TON a leg up, but it doesn't magically create a thriving ecosystem.

Pumpamentals or Real Adoption Metrics?

The article pointed out a “powerful support zone” set up just prior to that breakout. Currently, a “new support zone” seems to be building at the $3.00 to $3.01 level. Great. So what? Technical analysis is a great tool, but it’s not an oracle. A CoinDesk Analytics AI-powered tool, though very cool, is ultimately just an AI algorithm crunching data. What it doesn’t get is the human factor – the greed, the fear, the irrational exuberance that all drives these markets.

What really matters are the adoption metrics. What progress has been made in terms of people adopting TON to send payments on a daily basis. Number of developers working to create applications on platform. What’s the total value locked (TVL) in TON-based DeFi protocols? These are the questions that will ultimately decide if TON is just a flash in the pan or a serious long-term player.

We’d like to see some concrete proof of legitimate, real-world use cases—far more than speculative price chart trading or trading volume. Otherwise, we’re merely creating edifices of hopes and dreams that are one day bound for a high tide that will sweep them all away. Remember those first breakout trading volumes of 1.87M and 1.54M? If only selfishly chasing volume were enough to guarantee a successful project. What about the sharp pullback to $2.98? That’s birth pangs of volatility and uncertainty, not ironclad confidence.

What Happens After the Hype Dies?

So, what's next for TON? Honestly, it could go either way.

  • Scenario 1: The Crash. The hype fades, the speculators move on to the next shiny object, and TON's price plummets back to earth. This is the most likely scenario, given the history of the crypto market.
  • Scenario 2: Slow and Steady Growth. Telegram continues to integrate TON into its platform, real-world use cases emerge, and the ecosystem gradually matures. This is the best-case scenario, but it requires a lot of hard work and a healthy dose of luck.
  • Scenario 3: Regulatory Hurdles. Governments around the world crack down on crypto, making it more difficult for Telegram to operate and stifling TON's growth. This is a wildcard scenario that could derail the project regardless of its merits.

Frankly, I'm leaning towards scenario one. The crypto market can be a fickle beast, and oftentimes what’s past is prologue. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe TON really is different.

Don't blindly trust the hype. Do your own research. Consider something larger than the price charts and trading volumes. Determine if TON is addressing a legitimate need, or merely introducing a new challenge. And don’t forget the golden rule—never invest more than you can afford to lose. If only that were true… Because in the world of crypto, anything can happen.

I'm not saying TON is a scam. What I’m not saying, though, is that you should not pay attention to it. Just that you should come to it with a healthy sense of skepticism. After all, when it comes to crypto, you can never be too safe.