Let's cut the crap. You’re reading these articles, perhaps even experiencing the FOMO as XRP hips and hops. People are screaming "$2 is inevitable!" I'm here to tell you: pump the brakes. In the world of crypto, anything is possible! The reality of clinging to that $2 dream today is betting on a broken-legged horse. In short, you may indeed win, but you almost definitely will not because the deck is stacked against you.

In fairness, I’m not predicting XRP is going to zero. Looking at today’s market indicators, we may be due for a major correction. Reality is very much on the side of this view, rendering a move to $2 pretty darn unlikely. And I'm going to tell you why.

Bearish Cloud, Bearish Signal Ahead

Consider the Ichimoku Cloud the day to day weather report for XRP. When it’s green, warm and sunny, the whole atmosphere is positive. When it shifts to red and thickens, it's time to grab your umbrella and maybe consider battening down the hatches. That's exactly what's happening now. Change from a green Ichimoku Cloud to a red one – Very significant change. This isn’t simply a temporary blip; it changes the overall trajectory.

It's not alone. The Tenkan-sen dipping below the Kijun-sen? That's the equivalent of the weatherman telling you there's a 90% chance of rain. These are not mere strokes on a graph; these are moves in the direction of momentum and the investor psyche. Ignore them at your peril.

It’s as if we decided to look the other way at the rumbling volcano because it didn’t stop the birds singing. Ok, the birds are very calming and pleasant, but that lava could care less about your well-being.

RSI: Where's the Buying Pressure, Folks?

Alright, now for the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Ideally, a healthy RSI would be flexing its muscles, making some upward wiggles in the overbought range, indicating plenty of buying pressure, amirite? XRP’s relative strength index (RSI) is now floating just above 44.54. That's not exactly screaming "bull run."

Think of it like this: imagine you're at an auction. The price is legally required to be increasing explosively, but no one is willing to bid fiercely. That's what this RSI is telling us. Enthusiastic buyers aren’t exactly coming up to bat. And without that buying pressure, those prices aren’t going anywhere but sideways… or south.

The last time XRP’s RSI even sniffed the overbought neighborhood (over 70) was way back in March. That was months ago. That’s about as impressive as claiming you won the lottery half a year ago. Congrats, but what have you done lately? There’s no resting on your laurels in the crypto space.

Volatility's Squeeze: Beware the Spring

Volatility is like a coiled spring. While it is compressed, it is storing potential energy. The catch is, you don’t know what direction it will pivot. XRP is in a major squeeze here, a compression landscape between $2.05 and $2.09. This is not stability, this is the calm before the storm.

Why, you ask, besides the fact that all those other indicators I’ve run through are moving in that direction. On top of that, if we’re being real, the macro environment isn’t that great. Inflation concerns remain at the forefront, and regulatory uncertainty continues to loom threats over the whole crypto industry.

Legendary gold and Bitcoin analyst Peter Brandt, of course, is sounding alarm bells over a possible major correction. Having been through enough boom-and-bust cycles in the market, he has the ability to recognize when the music is about to stop. How could you afford to overlook a person with their level of expertise?

Could XRP still hit $2? Sure, anything can happen. But as it currently stands, the deck is stacked against you. Don’t be the last man standing when the game’s over! Be wise, be safe, and be ready to weather the next inevitable downturn. Your portfolio will thank you.

So, what's the play?

  • Be realistic. Don't let hopium cloud your judgment.
  • Set stop-loss orders. Protect your capital. If $2.05 breaks, be prepared for a potential slide to $1.96, and even further down to $1.61.
  • Consider taking profits. If you're already in the green, locking in some gains might be a smart move.
  • Don't marry your bags. This isn't a lifetime commitment. Be willing to cut your losses and move on.

Could XRP still hit $2? Sure, anything can happen. But right now, the odds are not in your favor. Don't be the guy who's left holding the bag when the music stops. Be smart, be cautious, and be prepared for a potential correction. Your portfolio will thank you.